Eight months after the beginning of the conflict, the whole world is starting to wonder what will happen at the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which is already upsetting the world’s geopolitical equilibrium. It is not yet clear how and when the conflict will end and several peace scenarios lie ahead.
One of the possible scenarios could be the formation of two distinct, opposed and divided blocs, such as those that existed from the end of the Second World War until the end of the Cold War. In this case, the world economic model based on globalization and the free market would come to a rapid halt, as we are already seeing in recent months with the heavy sanctions applied to the Russian economy, which are causing heavy repercussions in Russia but also in Europe, the main importer of gas and other natural resources from Russia.
Or, we could envisage a situation apparently reconciled through substantial diplomatic means, but highly unstable and destined to last a short time with an almost certain prospect of the emergence of new conflicts within a few years. In fact, the situation that has emerged in that area in the last months is not the result of a recent phenomenon, but of a condition of instability and tension that has continued at least since 2014 with the Donbas War and the annexation of Crimea to Russia.
While Europe is committed to stopping the conflict as soon as possible to avoid further bloodshed, it must rethink its economic model and find new trading partners for natural resources or new solutions in the field of energy supply and of the rising prices that it will have to face in the absence of Russian gas.
Will European and world diplomacy be able to mediate effectively between the two sides and start the conflict towards an optimal resolution? If so, what will it be?
