How not to make mistakes in Foreign Relations With China and Russia

Although it is still very difficult to predict what the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be, it cannot be denied that the previous political, economic and strategic balances have moved their center of gravity. In order to better understand these transformations it seems necessary to ask what new world order may prevail after the end of the conflict. The situation on the ground will likely lead to a militarization of relations between states and to a dangerous instability of the international system, which will also have an ambivalent impact on Europe. While Ukraine may have a role as a privileged interlocutor and partner of the United States. Europe could risk finding itself trapped in a competition with Russia in the region and with China at the global level. The political and strategic autonomy of the Union could therefore be seriously questioned. Certainly, from an economic point of view, governments will have to promote a reorganisation of the supply, production and assembly chains of their countries. Furthermore, it should not be forgotten that in the early 1990s Russia entered the global financial system by gaining access to global capital markets. This has not been followed, however, by an economic growth which should have drastically reduced poverty, as in other countries benefiting of globalisation, and strengthened ties with Europe which have taken place almost only in the field of energy. Another point of uncertainty is whether globalization will come to its end, or if not, how it will evolve after the end of the conflict and because of the raising tensions in the Indo-Pacific area. Russia, due to the existing sanctions, could either withdraw into itself and look more and more, despite its size and the connected dangers, like states as Venezuela or North Korea, or could be transformed by an internal rebellion against dictatorship and aggressive nationalism. It is evident that today any type of forecast has in itself a too high margin of error since we are facing a system with several variables which are intrinsically linked to each other, and not always in a linear way. Nevertheless, discuss these issues helps to understand the dynamics and geopolitical voids which may occur soon.